BLAST Slam II · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Falconsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gaimin Gladiators
Muertasignature
tOfu · 26 games
Enchantressoften banned
Seleri · 15 games
Mirana
tOfu · 15 games
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 15 games
Chenoften banned
Seleri · 14 games
Doomoften banned
Ace · 14 games
Morphlingoften banned
Watson · 14 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Seleri · 14 games
Team Falcons
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 41 game
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 41 game
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 38 games
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 36 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 34 games
Batridersignature
Cr1t- · 26 games
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 26 games
Alchemistsignature
Skiter · 24 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
479 picks · 622 bans
Muerta
463 picks · 401 bans
Batrider
459 picks · 579 bans
Clockwerk
440 picks · 550 bans
Tiny
427 picks · 495 bans
Gyrocopter
419 picks · 784 bans
Magnus
406 picks · 914 bans
Lion
395 picks · 233 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 60%
Hero pool strength60% Team Falcons
Head-to-head4 – 8
Model total71% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:24
Gaimin Gladiators 36%Team Falcons 64%
The model gave 64% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 48:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingWatson
Nature's ProphetMalr1ne
AbaddonAce
RazorATF
HuskarQuinn
EarthshakerSkiter
LichSeleri
EnchantressSneyking
TusktOfu
ClockwerkCr1t-
Game 2prediction missed31:16
Gaimin Gladiators 41%Team Falcons 59%
The model gave 59% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 37:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaQuinn
AbaddonSkiter
TerrorbladeWatson
MarsATF
MagnusAce
TinyMalr1ne
LichSeleri
Bounty HunterCr1t-
Nyx AssassintOfu
PhoenixSneyking
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 71%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2