PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:1series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Spiritloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gaimin Gladiators
Crystal Maidensignature
Seleri · 25 games
Batridersignature
tOfu · 18 games
Alchemistoften banned
dyrachyo · 17 games
Gyrocopter
tOfu · 17 games
Magnusoften banned
Ace · 16 games
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 15 games
Undyingoften banned
Seleri · 13 games
Vengeful Spirit
Seleri · 13 games
Team Spirit
Rubick
Mira · 23 games
Tinyoften banned
Mira · 21 game
Grimstroke
Miposhka · 18 games
Marssignature
Collapse · 18 games
Lion
Mira · 17 games
Pucksignature
Larl · 16 games
Primal Beastsignature
Collapse · 15 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Collapse · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
482 picks · 212 bans
Tiny
444 picks · 619 bans
Batrider
405 picks · 734 bans
Rubick
392 picks · 157 bans
Centaur Warrunner
388 picks · 542 bans
Gyrocopter
378 picks · 319 bans
Pangolier
360 picks · 725 bans
Mars
334 picks · 546 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 35%
Hero pool strength53% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total61% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:18
Gaimin Gladiators 55%Team Spirit 45%
The model gave 55% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 40:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealerdyrachyo
SlarkYatoro
Dragon KnightQuinn
MarsCollapse
DoomAce
RazorLarl
ClinkztOfu
EnchantressMiposhka
BaneSeleri
Dark WillowMira
Game 2prediction missed18:38
Gaimin Gladiators 58%Team Spirit 42%
The model gave 58% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 48:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkzdyrachyo
LifestealerYatoro
Keeper of the LightQuinn
PuckLarl
EnigmaAce
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
Shadow DemontOfu
EnchantressMiposhka
ClockwerkSeleri
BaneMira
Game 3prediction correct42:16
Gaimin Gladiators 57%Team Spirit 43%
The model gave 57% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 39:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BroodmotherAce
WindrangerYatoro
Clinkzdyrachyo
DoomCollapse
PangolierQuinn
LeshracLarl
EnchantressSeleri
ClockwerkMira
HoodwinktOfu
BaneMiposhka
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 61%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3