?
arrow_backBack to match
ESL One Birmingham 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 0:2
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Seleri · 25 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 20 games
70%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
dyrachyo · 19 games
63%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
tOfu · 17 games
53%
Batrider
Batridersignature
tOfu · 16 games
81%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Ace · 16 games
50%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Seleri · 13 games
54%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
Seleri · 13 games
46%

Xtreme Gaming

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Xxs · 21 game
81%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 19 games
74%
Mars
Marssignature
Xxs · 18 games
61%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Xxs · 16 games
44%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
XinQ · 15 games
80%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Dy · 14 games
71%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Dy · 13 games
62%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Xm · 13 games
77%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
471 picks · 204 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
450 picks · 830 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
448 picks · 593 bans
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
443 picks · 663 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
416 picks · 178 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
391 picks · 719 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
389 picks · 618 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
380 picks · 293 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 49%
Hero pool strength56% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total62% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:30
Gaimin Gladiators 43%Xtreme Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 36:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Zeus
ZeusQuinn
38% · 90 games53% · 103 games
SvenAme
Sven
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightdyrachyo
61% · 54 games55% · 121 game
Keeper of the LightXm
Keeper of the Light
Axe
AxeAce
42% · 47 games52% · 153 games
Centaur WarrunnerXxs
Centaur Warrunner
Batrider
BatridertOfu
47% · 337 games52% · 156 games
Crystal MaidenDy
Crystal Maiden
Io
IoSeleri
50% · 103 games51% · 98 games
Dark WillowXinQ
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct19:20
Gaimin Gladiators 42%Xtreme Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 51:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Zeus
ZeusQuinn
56% · 35 games45% · 170 games
Templar AssassinXm
Templar Assassin
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterdyrachyo
53% · 71 game61% · 23 games
Chaos KnightAme
Chaos Knight
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerAce
50% · 126 games50% · 67 games
SlardarXxs
Slardar
Techies
TechiestOfu
45% · 128 games48% · 63 games
Elder TitanXinQ
Elder Titan
Io
IoSeleri
50% · 27 games53% · 64 games
BaneDy
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 62%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2