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PGL Wallachia Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Muerta
Muertasignature
tOfu · 33 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Quinn · 26 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Watson · 26 games
58%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Malady · 24 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ace · 19 games
42%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Ace · 18 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Ace · 17 games
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Quinn · 17 games
65%

Xtreme Gaming

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
XinQ · 29 games
72%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ame · 29 games
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 25 games
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Ame · 23 games
61%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
lou · 22 games
55%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
天命 · 22 games
64%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Poloson · 21 game
67%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Xxs · 20 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
553 picks · 627 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
493 picks · 249 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
451 picks · 400 bans
47%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
421 picks · 465 bans
57%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
409 picks · 851 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
385 picks · 566 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
385 picks · 356 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
363 picks · 533 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 61%
Hero pool strength53% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total54% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:16
Gaimin Gladiators 49%Xtreme Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 41:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerWatson
little data46% · 145 games
Templar AssassinAme
Templar Assassin
Puck
PuckQuinn
51% · 197 games49% · 109 games
AbaddonXxs
Abaddon
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerAce
53% · 118 games46% · 70 games
SlardarXm
Slardar
Jakiro
JakiroMalady
48% · 237 games55% · 178 games
Shadow DemonXinQ
Shadow Demon
Rubick
RubicktOfu
49% · 108 games51% · 158 games
Shadow ShamanPoloson
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction correct23:10
Gaimin Gladiators 52%Xtreme Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 41:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeWatson
48% · 250 games57% · 207 games
MorphlingAme
Morphling
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerAce
51% · 166 games58% · 56 games
Death ProphetXm
Death Prophet
Kunkka
KunkkaQuinn
47% · 137 games49% · 297 games
PangolierXxs
Pangolier
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphettOfu
44% · 145 games62% · 106 games
Elder TitanPoloson
Elder Titan
Disruptor
DisruptorMalady
42% · 54 games42% · 86 games
MarciXinQ
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 54%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2