PGL Wallachia Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Yellow Submarineloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gaimin Gladiators
Muertasignature
tOfu · 35 games
Pangolieroften banned
Quinn · 23 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Watson · 17 games
Morphlingoften banned
Watson · 17 games
Clockwerk
Seleri · 16 games
Doomoften banned
Ace · 16 games
Invokeroften banned
Quinn · 16 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Ace · 15 games
Yellow Submarine
Batrideroften banned
mrls · 9 games
Tinyoften banned
re1bl · 9 games
Muertasignature
mrls · 7 games
Lion
mrls · 6 games
Crystal Maiden
Htrd · 5 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
ififall · 5 games
Lich
Htrd · 5 games
Morphlingoften banned
nesfeer · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
514 picks · 737 bans
Phoenix
493 picks · 800 bans
Clockwerk
489 picks · 479 bans
Muerta
443 picks · 380 bans
Batrider
442 picks · 539 bans
Magnus
434 picks · 1044 bans
Bristleback
410 picks · 945 bans
Pangolier
393 picks · 529 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 33%
Hero pool strength53% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total91% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:5
Gaimin Gladiators 77%Yellow Submarine 23%
The model gave 77% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 23:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeWatson
Svennesfeer
MagnusAce
Storm Spiritre1bl
Ember SpiritQuinn
Silencerififall
MiranatOfu
Marcimrls
WarlockMalady
Game 2prediction correct38:5
Gaimin Gladiators 76%Yellow Submarine 24%
The model gave 76% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 24:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of PainQuinn
Magnusnesfeer
Phantom AssassinWatson
Windrangerre1bl
AbaddonAce
Muertamrls
EarthshakertOfu
Warlockififall
JakiroMalady
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 91%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2