ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Gamax Esportsloss 0:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Riyadh Chefswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gamax Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Riyadh Chefs
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
223 picks · 272 bans
Dark Willow
203 picks · 90 bans
Grimstroke
202 picks · 232 bans
Pangolier
185 picks · 399 bans
Phoenix
174 picks · 232 bans
Sven
170 picks · 250 bans
Earthshaker
169 picks · 171 bans
Treant Protector
166 picks · 377 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Gamax Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Riyadh Chefs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:36
Gamax Esports 45%Riyadh Chefs 55%
The model gave 55% on Riyadh Chefs — the game was taken by Riyadh Chefs in 28:38.
Game 2prediction correct28:43
Gamax Esports 45%Riyadh Chefs 55%
The model gave 55% on Riyadh Chefs — the game was taken by Riyadh Chefs in 39:50.
Model check result
Model favoriteRiyadh Chefs · 55%
Series resultRiyadh Chefs 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2