Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Gambit Esportsloss 1:2series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 1:2
NMNo Monkey Businesswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gambit Esports
No games played over 6 months.
No Monkey Business
Beastmasteroften banned
MieRo · 3 games
Shadow Demon
illusion · 3 games
Bane
antoha · 2 games
Chenoften banned
antoha · 2 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Egor · 2 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
xannii · 2 games
Axe
MieRo · 1 game
Clockwerk
antoha · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
548 picks · 369 bans
Queen of Pain
480 picks · 577 bans
Mars
446 picks · 604 bans
Weaver
424 picks · 777 bans
Snapfire
365 picks · 175 bans
Spirit Breaker
345 picks · 574 bans
Kunkka
344 picks · 547 bans
Wraith King
286 picks · 347 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 57%
Hero pool strength57% No Monkey Business
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Gambit Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:26
Gambit Esports 74%No Monkey Business 26%
The model gave 74% on Gambit Esports — the game was taken by No Monkey Business in 27:26.
Game 2prediction missed12:27
Gambit Esports 74%No Monkey Business 26%
The model gave 74% on Gambit Esports — the game was taken by No Monkey Business in 40:57.
Game 3prediction missed25:11
Gambit Esports 74%No Monkey Business 26%
The model gave 74% on Gambit Esports — the game was taken by No Monkey Business in 33:49.
Model check result
Model favoriteGambit Esports · 74%
Series resultNo Monkey Business 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3