PGL Wallachia Season 7. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
GamerLegionloss 0:2series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Heroicwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
GamerLegion
Chenoften banned
Speeed · 15 games
Jakirosignature
Speeed · 12 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Bignum · 11 games
Batridersignature
Speeed · 9 games
Beastmasteroften banned
RCY · 9 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Fayde · 8 games
Clockwerksignature
Bignum · 8 games
Snapfiresignature
Bignum · 8 games
Heroic
Tusk
Scofield · 28 games
Jakirooften banned
KJ · 24 games
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 23 games
Enigmasignature
Wisper · 20 games
Leshracsignature
Wisper · 18 games
Ursaoften banned
Yuma · 18 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Yuma · 17 games
Shadow Demonsignature
KJ · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
568 picks · 916 bans
Tusk
535 picks · 405 bans
Dragon Knight
488 picks · 653 bans
Centaur Warrunner
487 picks · 624 bans
Shadow Demon
418 picks · 898 bans
Ember Spirit
382 picks · 622 bans
Mars
368 picks · 514 bans
Warlock
361 picks · 220 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Heroic
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total62% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:27
GamerLegion 43%Heroic 57%
The model gave 57% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 45:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenYamSun
BloodseekerYuma
SniperRCY
MagnusWisper
PangolierFayde
ViperTaiLung
WarlockSpeeed
DazzleKJ
ClockwerkBignum
TuskThiolicor
Game 2prediction correct5:19
GamerLegion 43%Heroic 57%
The model gave 57% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 42:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of PainRCY
AbaddonYuma
WindrangerYamSun
RazorTaiLung
PangolierFayde
AxeWisper
DazzleSpeeed
JakiroKJ
TuskBignum
Skywrath MageThiolicor
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 62%
Series resultHeroic 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2