PGL Wallachia Season 7. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
GamerLegionwin 2:0series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
NGNew Growthloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
GamerLegion
Chenoften banned
Speeed · 14 games
Jakirosignature
Speeed · 10 games
Batridersignature
Speeed · 8 games
Beastmasteroften banned
RCY · 8 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Fayde · 8 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Bignum · 8 games
Snapfiresignature
Bignum · 8 games
Clockwerksignature
Bignum · 6 games
New Growth
Jakirooften banned
Panda · 2 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Panda · 2 games
Dazzle
Panda · 1 game
Disruptor
Panda · 1 game
Enchantressoften banned
Panda · 1 game
Huskaroften banned
Panda · 1 game
Ogre Magi
Panda · 1 game
Undying
Panda · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
537 picks · 871 bans
Tusk
514 picks · 383 bans
Dragon Knight
477 picks · 634 bans
Centaur Warrunner
459 picks · 593 bans
Shadow Demon
397 picks · 825 bans
Ember Spirit
358 picks · 578 bans
Gyrocopter
346 picks · 569 bans
Mars
346 picks · 483 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% New Growth
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% GamerLegion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:16
GamerLegion 67%New Growth 33%
The model gave 67% on GamerLegion — the game was taken by GamerLegion in 36:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckRCY
DazzleStingeR
ViperYamSun
TidehunterFayde
LargoSpeeed
Shadow DemonBignum
Game 2prediction correct31:16
GamerLegion 66%New Growth 34%
The model gave 66% on GamerLegion — the game was taken by GamerLegion in 33:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm SpiritYamSun
TuskStingeR
Shadow FiendRCY
TidehunterFayde
ChenSpeeed
ClockwerkBignum
Model check result
Model favoriteGamerLegion · 77%
Series resultGamerLegion 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2