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PREMIER SERIES · BO3
result vs prediction
GamerLegionloss 1:2
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

GamerLegion

Warlock
Warlock
Speeed · 22 games
41%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Speeed · 21 game
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 20 games
50%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Speeed · 20 games
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Bignum · 20 games
45%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
RCY · 18 games
61%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Bignum · 18 games
61%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
RCY · 16 games
31%

Nigma Galaxy

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 28 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
GH · 25 games
28%
Dazzle
Dazzleoften banned
GH · 23 games
57%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
OmaR · 22 games
55%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
SumaiL · 22 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
rincyq · 21 game
52%
Muerta
Muerta
rincyq · 18 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristleback
No!ob · 17 games
41%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
645 picks · 715 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
519 picks · 473 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
488 picks · 394 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
436 picks · 293 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
401 picks · 1087 bans
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
400 picks · 337 bans
55%
Puck
Puck
384 picks · 799 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
383 picks · 570 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% GamerLegion
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total56% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:26
GamerLegion 47%Nigma Galaxy 53%
The model gave 53% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by GamerLegion in 53:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaGhost
50% · 173 games46% · 289 games
Queen of PainNo!ob
Queen of Pain
Doom
DoomFayde
48% · 160 games53% · 254 games
Templar Assassinrincyq
Templar Assassin
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritRCY
53% · 409 games48% · 370 games
BeastmasterDavai
Beastmaster
Rubick
RubickBignum
56% · 101 game43% · 128 games
DazzleGH
Dazzle
Tusk
TuskSpeeed
50% · 515 games55% · 317 games
HoodwinkOmaR
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct7:39
GamerLegion 47%Nigma Galaxy 53%
The model gave 53% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 35:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomGhost
52% · 77 games49% · 118 games
Muertarincyq
Muerta
Invoker
InvokerRCY
47% · 73 games51% · 70 games
LycanNo!ob
Lycan
Axe
AxeFayde
48% · 108 games48% · 165 games
TidehunterDavai
Tidehunter
Batrider
BatriderSpeeed
52% · 166 games46% · 67 games
Keeper of the LightGH
Keeper of the Light
Rubick
RubickBignum
61% · 66 games47% · 70 games
Spirit BreakerOmaR
Spirit Breaker
Game 3prediction correct41:26
GamerLegion 46%Nigma Galaxy 54%
The model gave 54% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 1:07:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckRCY
47% · 316 games50% · 190 games
Muertarincyq
Muerta
Beastmaster
BeastmasterGhost
41% · 298 games43% · 319 games
PangolierNo!ob
Pangolier
Night Stalker
Night StalkerFayde
59% · 34 games50% · 238 games
UnderlordDavai
Underlord
Chen
ChenSpeeed
55% · 143 games56% · 105 games
RubickOmaR
Rubick
Hoodwink
HoodwinkBignum
55% · 267 games51% · 206 games
PugnaGH
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 56%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3