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PGL Wallachia Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
GamerLegionwin 2:1
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Pipsqueak+4loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

GamerLegion

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Bignum · 22 games
50%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Speeed · 22 games
73%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Bignum · 20 games
35%
Kez
Kezoften banned
RCY · 20 games
55%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Bignum · 18 games
72%
Rubick
Rubick
Bignum · 17 games
59%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ghost · 17 games
53%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
Speeed · 17 games
35%

Pipsqueak+4

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ekki · 18 games
56%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Malik · 11 games
73%
Kez
Kezsignature
rincyq · 11 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Copy · 10 games
80%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Ekki · 9 games
67%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Copy · 9 games
89%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
rincyq · 8 games
50%
Mirana
Mirana
aik · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
481 picks · 290 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
340 picks · 142 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
334 picks · 156 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
316 picks · 462 bans
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
293 picks · 298 bans
55%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
291 picks · 441 bans
53%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
272 picks · 250 bans
59%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
270 picks · 197 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 56%
Hero pool strength57% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total53% GamerLegion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:38
GamerLegion 51%Pipsqueak+4 49%
The model gave 51% on GamerLegion — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 39:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezTimado
51% · 232 games54% · 155 games
Nature's Prophetrincyq
Nature's Prophet
Lycan
LycanFayde
51% · 117 games54% · 195 games
TimbersawMalik
Timbersaw
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritRCY
49% · 376 games45% · 78 games
EarthshakerCopy
Earthshaker
Dark Willow
Dark WillowBignum
46% · 310 games53% · 530 games
HoodwinkEkki
Hoodwink
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorSpeeed
44% · 83 games53% · 160 games
Miranaaik
Mirana
Game 2prediction correct34:15
GamerLegion 51%Pipsqueak+4 49%
The model gave 51% on GamerLegion — the game was taken by GamerLegion in 34:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidTimado
56% · 85 games49% · 160 games
Kezrincyq
Kez
Largo
LargoRCY
54% · 207 games48% · 87 games
NecrophosMalik
Necrophos
Brewmaster
BrewmasterFayde
51% · 76 games47% · 168 games
PangolierCopy
Pangolier
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernSpeeed
52% · 190 games44% · 92 games
Lichaik
Lich
Lion
LionBignum
55% · 123 games43% · 174 games
Dark WillowEkki
Dark Willow
Game 3prediction missed42:12
GamerLegion 49%Pipsqueak+4 51%
The model gave 51% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by GamerLegion in 39:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaTimado
54% · 221 game49% · 335 games
Tinyrincyq
Tiny
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerRCY
42% · 22 games50% · 179 games
TimbersawMalik
Timbersaw
Axe
AxeFayde
48% · 220 games53% · 225 games
SnapfireCopy
Snapfire
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernSpeeed
54% · 181 game55% · 46 games
Witch Doctoraik
Witch Doctor
Windranger
WindrangerBignum
47% · 324 games45% · 183 games
Dark WillowEkki
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteGamerLegion · 53%
Series resultGamerLegion 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3