GamerLegion vs Team Cobra — prediction PWS 9 · Dota 2

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PGL Wallachia Season 9 · BO3

result vs prediction

GamerLegionwin 2:0

series probability

84%16%

probability at match start · final 2:0

Team Cobraloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

GamerLegion

Dark Willow

Bignum · 21 game

48%

Miranasignature

Speeed · 21 game

71%

Hoodwink

Bignum · 20 games

35%

Kezoften banned

RCY · 19 games

53%

Tusksignature

Bignum · 18 games

72%

Rubick

Bignum · 17 games

59%

Winter Wyvern

Speeed · 17 games

35%

Tinyoften banned

Ghost · 16 games

50%

Team Cobra

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Hoodwink

465 picks · 286 bans

50%

Mirana

316 picks · 128 bans

53%

Dark Willow

315 picks · 137 bans

50%

Ember Spirit

306 picks · 449 bans

59%

Centaur Warrunner

285 picks · 291 bans

55%

Earth Spirit

284 picks · 419 bans

52%

Clockwerk

271 picks · 213 bans

50%

Undying

265 picks · 365 bans

49%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)45% vs 50%

Hero pool strength52% GamerLegion

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total84% GamerLegion

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct31:14

GamerLegion 70%Team Cobra 30%

The model gave 70% on GamerLegion — the game was taken by GamerLegion in 47:31.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo

TinyTimado

41% · 232 games50% · 243 games

Shadow FiendParker