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BLAST Slam VI · BO1
result vs prediction
GamerLegionloss 0:1
series probability
7%93%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Tundra Esportswin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

GamerLegion

Chen
Chenoften banned
Speeed · 15 games
53%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Speeed · 13 games
62%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Bignum · 11 games
36%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Speeed · 9 games
78%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
RCY · 9 games
22%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Fayde · 9 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Bignum · 9 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Bignum · 9 games
56%

Tundra Esports

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 32 games
56%
Axe
Axesignature
33 · 25 games
60%
Bane
Banesignature
Whitemon · 22 games
73%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 21 game
81%
Pugna
Pugna
Whitemon · 21 game
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 19 games
68%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Pure~ · 18 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Whitemon · 17 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
604 picks · 940 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
541 picks · 429 bans
46%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
491 picks · 647 bans
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
488 picks · 655 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
440 picks · 951 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
397 picks · 654 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
391 picks · 530 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
381 picks · 233 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 70%
Hero pool strength56% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total93% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:34
GamerLegion 19%Tundra Esports 81%
The model gave 81% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 39:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverYamSun
45% · 78 games48% · 191 game
MuertaPure~
Muerta
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritRCY
53% · 257 games50% · 90 games
Invokerbzm
Invoker
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerFayde
51% · 178 games50% · 79 games
Brewmaster33
Brewmaster
Mirana
MiranaSpeeed
51% · 52 games51% · 266 games
Shadow ShamanAri
Shadow Shaman
Dark Willow
Dark WillowBignum
48% · 180 games52% · 119 games
ClockwerkWhitemon
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 93%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1