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PREMIER SERIES · BO3
result vs prediction
GamerLegionwin 2:1
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:1
VP.Prodigyloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

GamerLegion

Warlock
Warlock
Speeed · 22 games
41%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Speeed · 21 game
57%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Speeed · 20 games
55%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 19 games
53%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Bignum · 18 games
44%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Speeed · 14 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
RCY · 14 games
29%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Bignum · 14 games
50%

VP.Prodigy

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
JANTER · 28 games
64%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 24 games
38%
Tiny
Tiny
raregods · 22 games
50%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
raregods · 18 games
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
JANTER · 16 games
44%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Serenada · 16 games
44%
Axe
Axeoften banned
takizawa · 15 games
40%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Katsura · 15 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
668 picks · 799 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
552 picks · 537 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
499 picks · 418 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
459 picks · 320 bans
47%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
413 picks · 1125 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
391 picks · 604 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
390 picks · 800 bans
51%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
385 picks · 1014 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 48%
Hero pool strength50% VP.Prodigy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% GamerLegion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed48:37
GamerLegion 62%VP.Prodigy 38%
The model gave 62% on GamerLegion — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 1:12:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritRCY
47% · 256 games52% · 76 games
Largotakizawa
Largo
Pangolier
PangolierFayde
45% · 187 games52% · 60 games
Clinkzcutie
Clinkz
Viper
ViperGhost
53% · 98 games54% · 201 game
Sand KingSerenada
Sand King
Rubick
RubickSpeeed
51% · 72 games46% · 185 games
PhoenixJANTER
Phoenix
Disruptor
DisruptorBignum
47% · 192 games54% · 283 games
Ringmasterraregods
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction correct
GamerLegion 76%VP.Prodigy 24%
The model gave 76% on GamerLegion — the game was taken by GamerLegion.
Game 3prediction correct48:21
GamerLegion 62%VP.Prodigy 38%
The model gave 62% on GamerLegion — the game was taken by GamerLegion in 37:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinGhost
46% · 192 games49% · 201 game
Sand Kingtakizawa
Sand King
Kez
KezRCY
52% · 68 games53% · 135 games
Weavercutie
Weaver
Slardar
SlardarFayde
48% · 194 games56% · 106 games
HuskarSerenada
Huskar
Phoenix
PhoenixSpeeed
51% · 169 games49% · 374 games
Ringmasterraregods
Ringmaster
Tusk
TuskBignum
48% · 441 game50% · 248 games
MarciJANTER
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteGamerLegion · 76%
Series resultGamerLegion 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3