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PREMIER SERIES · BO3
result vs prediction
GamerLegionwin 2:0
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

GamerLegion

Warlock
Warlock
Speeed · 22 games
41%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Speeed · 21 game
57%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Speeed · 20 games
55%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 19 games
53%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Bignum · 18 games
44%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Speeed · 14 games
64%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Bignum · 14 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
RCY · 13 games
23%

Zero Tenacity

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 45 games
69%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
MoOz · 42 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 39 games
69%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 38 games
47%
Bristleback
Bristleback
Nefrit · 35 games
57%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Worick · 28 games
57%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Nefrit · 28 games
54%
Warlock
Warlock
MoOz · 27 games
48%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
674 picks · 821 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
560 picks · 555 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
501 picks · 418 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
464 picks · 326 bans
47%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
413 picks · 1138 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
393 picks · 673 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
393 picks · 611 bans
48%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
391 picks · 1019 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 63%
Hero pool strength53% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:7
GamerLegion 48%Zero Tenacity 52%
The model gave 52% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by GamerLegion in 32:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistGhost
49% · 26 games50% · 47 games
Anti-MageKami
Anti-Mage
Largo
LargoFayde
63% · 62 games50% · 192 games
TimbersawNefrit
Timbersaw
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritRCY
48% · 277 games49% · 150 games
Sand KingWorick
Sand King
Phoenix
PhoenixSpeeed
52% · 146 games41% · 91 game
Skywrath MagedEsire
Skywrath Mage
Disruptor
DisruptorBignum
49% · 218 games51% · 249 games
RingmasterMoOz
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction missed25:12
GamerLegion 47%Zero Tenacity 53%
The model gave 53% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by GamerLegion in 29:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterRCY
54% · 190 games48% · 215 games
TidehunterNefrit
Tidehunter
Clinkz
ClinkzGhost
45% · 38 games48% · 49 games
AlchemistKami
Alchemist
Bristleback
BristlebackFayde
52% · 141 game46% · 68 games
SniperWorick
Sniper
Rubick
RubickSpeeed
54% · 49 games55% · 308 games
HoodwinkdEsire
Hoodwink
Tusk
TuskBignum
50% · 276 games41% · 54 games
Crystal MaidenMoOz
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 53%
Series resultGamerLegion 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2