ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaozuwin 2:0series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Titanloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gaozu
Storm Spiritoften banned
Paparazi · 2 games
Alchemistoften banned
Ame · 1 game
Bane
Dy · 1 game
Beastmasteroften banned
JT- · 1 game
Dark Willow
XinQ · 1 game
Dawnbreakeroften banned
JT- · 1 game
Enchantressoften banned
Dy · 1 game
Grimstroke
XinQ · 1 game
Titan
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
436 picks · 578 bans
Clockwerk
374 picks · 391 bans
Luna
324 picks · 387 bans
Pangolier
321 picks · 452 bans
Enchantress
302 picks · 577 bans
Dark Willow
287 picks · 156 bans
Dragon Knight
271 picks · 326 bans
Sand King
260 picks · 769 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 60%
Hero pool strength59% Gaozu
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Gaozu
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:8
Gaozu 61%Titan 39%
The model gave 61% on Gaozu — the game was taken by Gaozu in 30:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaAme
Shadow Fiendpoyoyo
DawnbreakerJT-
Sand KingEcho
Storm SpiritPaparazi
Primal BeastBEYOND
HoodwinkXinQ
Grimstrokemercy
PhoenixDy
Tuskzzq
Game 2prediction correct16:28
Gaozu 70%Titan 30%
The model gave 70% on Gaozu — the game was taken by Gaozu in 32:18.
Model check result
Model favoriteGaozu · 70%
Series resultGaozu 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2