?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 22. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Geek Famwin 1:0
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 1:0
747loss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Geek Fam

Rubick
Rubicksignature
NARMAN · 8 games
88%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Jing · 7 games
71%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
NARMAN · 7 games
57%
Sven
Svensignature
Ulnit · 6 games
67%
Warlock
Warlock
Skem · 6 games
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Skem · 5 games
60%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Mac · 5 games
40%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Jing · 5 games
60%

747

Luna
Luna
inYourdreaM · 3 games
0%
Mars
Marsoften banned
db- · 3 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
db- · 2 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Karl · 2 games
50%
Pudge
Pudgeoften banned
Boomy · 2 games
0%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Boomy · 2 games
0%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
inYourdreaM · 2 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
db- · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
267 picks · 444 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
242 picks · 385 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
235 picks · 316 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
225 picks · 317 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
216 picks · 102 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
215 picks · 203 bans
47%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
194 picks · 368 bans
54%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
191 picks · 479 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 43%
Hero pool strength56% Geek Fam
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% Geek Fam
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Geek Fam 81%747 19%
The model gave 81% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Geek Fam.
Model check result
Model favoriteGeek Fam · 81%
Series resultGeek Fam 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1