Geek Fam vs Darleng — prediction ELЗК · Dota 2

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Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

Geek Famloss 1:2

series probability

69%31%

probability at match start · final 1:2

Darlengwin 2:1

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Geek Fam

Rubicksignature

Skem · 8 games

75%

Nature's Prophetoften banned

Skem · 7 games

57%

Vengeful Spirit

Jing · 7 games

57%

Batridersignature

Jing · 6 games

100%

Bounty Hunteroften banned

Mac · 6 games

33%

Dark Willow

Jing · 6 games

50%

Hoodwink

Jing · 6 games

33%

Keeper of the Lightoften banned

Skem · 6 games

33%

Darleng

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Lion

380 picks · 352 bans

52%

Vengeful Spirit

339 picks · 336 bans

51%

Centaur Warrunner

322 picks · 526 bans

57%

Mars

318 picks · 473 bans

55%

Techies

307 picks · 237 bans

52%

Batrider

296 picks · 560 bans

57%

Hoodwink

296 picks · 175 bans

50%

Tiny

282 picks · 253 bans

53%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)62% vs 71%

Hero pool strength51% Geek Fam

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total69% Geek Fam

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed37:36

Geek Fam 61%Darleng 39%

The model gave 61% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Darleng in 57:26.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo