ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Geek Famwin 1:0series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 1:0
KAIloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Geek Fam
Dark Seersignature
Force · 10 games
Clockwerk
NARMAN · 7 games
Rubicksignature
NARMAN · 7 games
Axe
Force · 6 games
Pugnasignature
Skem · 6 games
Svensignature
Ulnit · 6 games
Vengeful Spiritsignature
NARMAN · 6 games
Warlock
Skem · 6 games
KAI
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
215 picks · 270 bans
Pangolier
179 picks · 375 bans
Grimstroke
173 picks · 154 bans
Sven
169 picks · 247 bans
Earthshaker
166 picks · 164 bans
Dark Willow
164 picks · 68 bans
Earth Spirit
150 picks · 232 bans
Phoenix
145 picks · 185 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% Geek Fam
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% Geek Fam
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:10
Geek Fam 82%KAI 18%
The model gave 82% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 27:39.
Model check result
Model favoriteGeek Fam · 82%
Series resultGeek Fam 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1