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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Geek Famwin 2:1
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:1
SPAWN Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Geek Fam

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skem · 12 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
NARMAN · 11 games
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
NARMAN · 10 games
80%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Force · 9 games
67%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Force · 9 games
78%
Tusk
Tusk
NARMAN · 9 games
44%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Force · 8 games
50%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
Skem · 8 games
50%

SPAWN Team

Tusk
Tusk
dalul · 24 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
TraVins · 22 games
41%
Mirana
Miranasignature
TraVins · 16 games
69%
Tiny
Tiny
dalul · 16 games
38%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
MamangDaya · 13 games
62%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Jikroy · 12 games
58%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Jikroy · 11 games
64%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Red · 10 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
752 picks · 622 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
612 picks · 534 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
548 picks · 1330 bans
58%
Doom
Doom
543 picks · 1075 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
468 picks · 513 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
466 picks · 963 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
459 picks · 1166 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
447 picks · 638 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 56%
Hero pool strength53% Geek Fam
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Geek Fam
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:26
Geek Fam 56%SPAWN Team 44%
The model gave 56% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by SPAWN Team in 35:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaUlnit
46% · 145 games49% · 117 games
MorphlingJikroy
Morphling
Dark Seer
Dark SeerForce
52% · 97 games48% · 187 games
Ember SpiritMamangDaya
Ember Spirit
Pugna
PugnaSkem
47% · 130 games54% · 68 games
Spirit BreakerwoMy
Spirit Breaker
Clockwerk
ClockwerkNARMAN
50% · 349 games55% · 188 games
Miranadalul
Mirana
50% · 161 game
SilencerTraVins
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct27:6
Geek Fam 54%SPAWN Team 46%
The model gave 54% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 25:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingUlnit
43% · 167 games55% · 123 games
Naga SirenJikroy
Naga Siren
Timbersaw
TimbersawForce
46% · 142 games49% · 68 games
PugnawoMy
Pugna
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSkem
49% · 241 game51% · 123 games
Storm SpiritMamangDaya
Storm Spirit
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonNARMAN
59% · 80 games48% · 106 games
Spirit Breakerdalul
Spirit Breaker
53% · 210 games
DisruptorTraVins
Disruptor
Game 3prediction correct39:23
Geek Fam 54%SPAWN Team 46%
The model gave 54% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 53:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistUlnit
50% · 110 games51% · 103 games
MorphlingJikroy
Morphling
Axe
AxeForce
41% · 43 games45% · 56 games
WindrangerwoMy
Windranger
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageNARMAN
48% · 145 games58% · 102 games
Void SpiritMamangDaya
Void Spirit
Disruptor
DisruptorSkem
51% · 257 games53% · 173 games
Clockwerkdalul
Clockwerk
51% · 121 game
SilencerTraVins
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteGeek Fam · 61%
Series resultGeek Fam 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3