Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Geek Famwin 2:0series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Geek Fam
Clockwerksignature
NARMAN · 12 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skem · 12 games
Batridersignature
Force · 11 games
Dark Seersignature
Force · 11 games
Rubick
NARMAN · 11 games
Tusk
NARMAN · 9 games
Doomoften banned
Force · 8 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
Skem · 8 games
Vision
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
739 picks · 562 bans
Disruptor
605 picks · 524 bans
Beastmaster
559 picks · 1273 bans
Doom
556 picks · 1093 bans
Techies
509 picks · 571 bans
Pangolier
474 picks · 949 bans
Ember Spirit
464 picks · 1108 bans
Enchantress
459 picks · 648 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 43%
Hero pool strength55% Geek Fam
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% Geek Fam
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:4
Geek Fam 83%Vision 17%
The model gave 83% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 21:30.
Game 2prediction correct32:5
Geek Fam 83%Vision 17%
The model gave 83% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 23:13.
Model check result
Model favoriteGeek Fam · 83%
Series resultGeek Fam 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2