Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Ghost frogswin 2:0series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
GEGMT Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ghost frogs
Death Prophetoften banned
Tobi · 2 games
Marsoften banned
Bor@nija · 2 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
j4 · 1 game
Earth Spirit
MiLAN · 1 game
Juggernautoften banned
Crystallis · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
Crystallis · 1 game
Razoroften banned
Tobi · 1 game
Tiny
MiLAN · 1 game
GMT Esports
Batrideroften banned
GGwpLanaya · 1 game
Linaoften banned
GGwpLanaya · 1 game
Tusk
kickeed · 1 game
Undyingoften banned
kickeed · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
428 picks · 940 bans
Void Spirit
407 picks · 583 bans
Death Prophet
357 picks · 653 bans
Mars
336 picks · 584 bans
Earth Spirit
307 picks · 276 bans
Phoenix
257 picks · 365 bans
Tusk
252 picks · 174 bans
Pangolier
244 picks · 346 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)82% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Ghost frogs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Ghost frogs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:1
Ghost frogs 63%GMT Esports 37%
The model gave 63% on Ghost frogs — the game was taken by Ghost frogs in 21:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BloodseekerCrystallis
Death ProphetGGwpLanaya
MarsBor@nija
Oraclekickeed
Night StalkerTobi
MiranaMiLAN
Grimstrokej4
Game 2prediction correct32:15
Ghost frogs 65%GMT Esports 35%
The model gave 65% on Ghost frogs — the game was taken by Ghost frogs in 33:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautCrystallis
Ember SpiritGGwpLanaya
Void SpiritBor@nija
Abaddonkickeed
UnderlordTobi
RubickMiLAN
Gyrocopterj4
Model check result
Model favoriteGhost frogs · 76%
Series resultGhost frogs 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2