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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Европа 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Ghost frogsloss 0:2
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Level UPwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ghost frogs

Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
Crystallis · 5 games
80%
Mirana
Mirana
MiLAN · 5 games
80%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
j4 · 4 games
25%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Bor@nija · 4 games
75%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Crystallis · 3 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Tobi · 3 games
67%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
MiLAN · 3 games
33%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
j4 · 2 games
50%

Level UP

Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Mastermind · 2 games
0%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Bor@nija · 2 games
0%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Bor@nija · 1 game
0%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Bor@nija · 1 game
0%
Mirana
Mirana
Mastermind · 1 game
0%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Bor@nija · 1 game
0%
Sand King
Sand King
Bor@nija · 1 game
0%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Mastermind · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
434 picks · 974 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
405 picks · 564 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
363 picks · 709 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
345 picks · 583 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
307 picks · 300 bans
47%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
303 picks · 297 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
296 picks · 207 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
260 picks · 140 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)72% vs 42%
Hero pool strength62% Ghost frogs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% Ghost frogs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:27
Ghost frogs 75%Level UP 25%
The model gave 75% on Ghost frogs — the game was taken by Level UP in 37:54.
Game 2prediction missed24:42
Ghost frogs 75%Level UP 25%
The model gave 75% on Ghost frogs — the game was taken by Level UP in 47:10.
Model check result
Model favoriteGhost frogs · 75%
Series resultLevel UP 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2