Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs predictionGghostsswin 2:0
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Lavaloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ghostss
No games played over 6 months.
Lava
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
466 picks · 642 bans
Tiny
466 picks · 496 bans
Bane
441 picks · 269 bans
Sand King
423 picks · 552 bans
Storm Spirit
359 picks · 606 bans
Dragon Knight
356 picks · 419 bans
Pangolier
351 picks · 535 bans
Death Prophet
349 picks · 812 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% ghostss
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Lava
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:14
ghostss 33%Lava 67%
The model gave 67% on Lava — the game was taken by ghostss in 30:54.
Game 2prediction missed26:16
ghostss 33%Lava 67%
The model gave 67% on Lava — the game was taken by ghostss in 32:09.
Model check result
Model favoriteLava · 67%
Series resultghostss 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2