?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 29. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
GLYPHwin 2:1
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:1
PlayTimeloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

GLYPH

Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
zeal · 2 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Emo · 2 games
100%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Jhocam · 2 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
NARMAN · 2 games
100%
Largo
Largooften banned
zeal · 2 games
100%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Emo · 2 games
50%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
JaCkky · 1 game
100%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
JaCkky · 1 game
0%

PlayTime

Tusk
Tusk
DJ · 10 games
40%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Armel · 7 games
57%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Gabbi · 7 games
86%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Armel · 6 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Kuku · 5 games
60%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
Gabbi · 5 games
80%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Kuku · 5 games
60%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Kuku · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
640 picks · 707 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
518 picks · 465 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
486 picks · 387 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
436 picks · 291 bans
48%
Phoenix
Phoenix
400 picks · 340 bans
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
395 picks · 1078 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
381 picks · 567 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
381 picks · 796 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% GLYPH
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% GLYPH
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:11
GLYPH 65%PlayTime 35%
The model gave 65% on GLYPH — the game was taken by GLYPH in 35:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezJaCkky
43% · 124 games47% · 178 games
BeastmasterRaven
Beastmaster
Lone Druid
Lone DruidEmo
little data50% · 55 games
Keeper of the LightPiPi
Keeper of the Light
Doom
Doomzeal
50% · 143 games53% · 163 games
GyrocopterAkashi
Gyrocopter
Batrider
BatriderNARMAN
54% · 304 games46% · 86 games
WeaverDJ
Weaver
Lion
LionJhocam
45% · 88 games60% · 177 games
Shadow DemonKuku
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction missed26:46
GLYPH 65%PlayTime 35%
The model gave 65% on GLYPH — the game was taken by PlayTime in 1:24:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaJaCkky
51% · 83 games44% · 128 games
KezPiPi
Kez
Largo
Largozeal
58% · 109 games53% · 272 games
UnderlordRaven
Underlord
Void Spirit
Void SpiritEmo
45% · 177 games52% · 282 games
MarciAkashi
Marci
Tusk
TuskJhocam
49% · 405 games49% · 296 games
PhoenixKuku
Phoenix
Warlock
WarlockNARMAN
50% · 298 games49% · 94 games
RubickDJ
Rubick
Game 3prediction correct36:9
GLYPH 65%PlayTime 35%
The model gave 65% on GLYPH — the game was taken by GLYPH in 56:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidJaCkky
48% · 97 games57% · 190 games
Monkey KingAkashi
Monkey King
Tidehunter
Tidehunterzeal
51% · 257 games52% · 301 game
BristlebackRaven
Bristleback
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritEmo
51% · 464 games41% · 300 games
Queen of PainPiPi
Queen of Pain
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightJhocam
57% · 137 games44% · 246 games
PhoenixKuku
Phoenix
Jakiro
JakiroNARMAN
51% · 616 games48% · 534 games
TuskDJ
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteGLYPH · 76%
Series resultGLYPH 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3