ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Go alongloss 1:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Brightwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Go along
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Killa · 1 game
Doomoften banned
Killa · 1 game
Grimstrokeoften banned
TK · 1 game
Weaveroften banned
TK · 1 game
Team Bright
Pangolieroften banned
phoenix · 9 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 8 games
Disruptor
Undyne_ · 6 games
Void Spirit
phoenix · 6 games
Doomoften banned
Irving · 5 games
Lich
Undyne_ · 5 games
Silenceroften banned
Undyne_ · 5 games
Undyingoften banned
Undyne_ · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
219 picks · 272 bans
Dark Willow
188 picks · 79 bans
Grimstroke
187 picks · 209 bans
Pangolier
183 picks · 392 bans
Earthshaker
169 picks · 170 bans
Sven
169 picks · 248 bans
Phoenix
159 picks · 216 bans
Earth Spirit
158 picks · 251 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength61% Go along
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Team Bright
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:25
Go along 49%Team Bright 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Bright — the game was taken by Team Bright in 38:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MarsKilla
Naga SirenManic
WeaverTK
Centaur WarrunnerIrving
54% · 50 games
Tinyphoenix
57% · 3 games
Ancient ApparitionUndyne_
Game 2prediction missed30:13
Go along 49%Team Bright 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Bright — the game was taken by Go along in 42:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Centaur WarrunnerKilla
Templar AssassinManic
Dark WillowTK
MagnusIrving
60% · 32 games
Kunkkaphoenix
50% · 21 game
MuertaUndyne_
Game 3prediction correct32:42
Go along 49%Team Bright 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Bright — the game was taken by Team Bright in 43:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Centaur WarrunnerKilla
Necrophosphoenix
GrimstrokeTK
Templar AssassinManic
57% · 12 games
MagnusIrving
61% · 18 games
MuertaUndyne_
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Bright · 53%
Series resultTeam Bright 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3