Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
GodGenesiswin 2:0series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
CCubodAgualoss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
GodGenesis
No games played over 6 months.
CubodAgua
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
752 picks · 474 bans
Tusk
532 picks · 447 bans
Tiny
530 picks · 384 bans
Treant Protector
528 picks · 576 bans
Nature's Prophet
410 picks · 596 bans
Snapfire
385 picks · 260 bans
Death Prophet
374 picks · 630 bans
Ember Spirit
351 picks · 745 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% GodGenesis
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% CubodAgua
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed44:17
GodGenesis 45%CubodAgua 55%
The model gave 55% on CubodAgua — the game was taken by GodGenesis in 34:41.
Game 2prediction missed25:28
GodGenesis 45%CubodAgua 55%
The model gave 55% on CubodAgua — the game was taken by GodGenesis in 41:18.
Model check result
Model favoriteCubodAgua · 55%
Series resultGodGenesis 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2