Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
GodGenesisloss 1:2series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Fantasy Gamingwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
GodGenesis
No games played over 6 months.
Fantasy Gaming
Drow Rangeroften banned
Arms · 1 game
Lifestealeroften banned
Arms · 1 game
Sniperoften banned
Arms · 1 game
Weaveroften banned
Arms · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
752 picks · 479 bans
Tusk
534 picks · 444 bans
Tiny
531 picks · 388 bans
Treant Protector
529 picks · 578 bans
Nature's Prophet
410 picks · 600 bans
Snapfire
387 picks · 266 bans
Death Prophet
376 picks · 633 bans
Ember Spirit
352 picks · 749 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength57% GodGenesis
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Fantasy Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:36
GodGenesis 42%Fantasy Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on Fantasy Gaming — the game was taken by GodGenesis in 38:35.
Game 2prediction correct14:45
GodGenesis 42%Fantasy Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on Fantasy Gaming — the game was taken by Fantasy Gaming in 34:13.
Game 3prediction correct42:34
GodGenesis 42%Fantasy Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on Fantasy Gaming — the game was taken by Fantasy Gaming in 47:08.
Model check result
Model favoriteFantasy Gaming · 58%
Series resultFantasy Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3