goons vs 5meow — prediction DPC2S3САЗО · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3

result vs prediction

goonswin 2:0

series probability

74%26%

probability at match start · final 2:0

55meowloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

goons

Pangolieroften banned

Boris · 5 games

80%

Skywrath Mage

AfrOmoush · 3 games

67%

Leshracoften banned

Boris · 2 games

50%

Tusk

Boris · 2 games

Clockwerk

AfrOmoush · 1 game

100%

Dark Willow

AfrOmoush · 1 game

Disruptor

AfrOmoush · 1 game

100%

Ember Spiritoften banned

Boris · 1 game

100%

5meow

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Rubick

734 picks · 613 bans

47%

Disruptor

550 picks · 481 bans

55%

Beastmaster

424 picks · 1029 bans

58%

Ember Spirit

400 picks · 978 bans

51%

Doom

399 picks · 664 bans

54%

Tiny

398 picks · 373 bans

53%

Undying

391 picks · 610 bans

49%

Mirana

379 picks · 206 bans

57%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)67% vs 40%

Hero pool strength55% goons

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total74% goons

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct20:9

goons 62%5meow 38%

The model gave 62% on goons — the game was taken by goons in 24:25.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo