The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
goonswin 2:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The Cutloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
goons
Rubicksignature
Giant · 10 games
Skywrath Magesignature
AfrOmoush · 6 games
Morphlingoften banned
Boris · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
Boris · 5 games
Techiesoften banned
Giant · 5 games
Magnusoften banned
Lil_Nick · 4 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
Boris · 4 games
Underlordoften banned
Lil_Nick · 4 games
The Cut
Ember Spiritoften banned
high_shaggy · 9 games
Silencersignature
empyrean5 · 9 games
Skywrath Mage
bgod · 9 games
Clinkzsignature
bgod · 8 games
Disruptor
empyrean5 · 7 games
Bristleback
Scourge McDuck · 6 games
Death Prophetsignature
high_shaggy · 6 games
Techiessignature
bgod · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
578 picks · 611 bans
Rubick
464 picks · 241 bans
Batrider
425 picks · 802 bans
Spirit Breaker
377 picks · 383 bans
Ember Spirit
374 picks · 716 bans
Doom
343 picks · 733 bans
Timbersaw
342 picks · 835 bans
Morphling
339 picks · 718 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 57%
Hero pool strength54% goons
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total62% goons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:22
goons 62%The Cut 38%
The model gave 62% on goons — the game was taken by goons in 46:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenBoris
AlchemistScourge McDuck
EarthshakerMTD
Weaverbgod
VisageLil_Nick
Spirit Breakerhigh_shaggy
ClockwerkGiant
Phoenixempyrean5
Game 2prediction correct38:32
goons 54%The Cut 46%
The model gave 54% on goons — the game was taken by goons in 49:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordMTD
Naga SirenScourge McDuck
Drow RangerBoris
Bounty Hunterbgod
TimbersawLil_Nick
Witch Doctorhigh_shaggy
LionGiant
Elder Titanempyrean5
Model check result
Model favoritegoons · 62%
Series resultgoons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2