?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
goonswin 2:0
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TiltedBoysloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

goons

Rubick
Rubick
Giant · 9 games
56%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
Giant · 6 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Boris · 5 games
40%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Boris · 5 games
80%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
Giant · 5 games
80%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Lil_Nick · 4 games
50%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Boris · 3 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Jubei · 3 games
33%

TiltedBoys

Doom
Doomoften banned
Ezekiel · 8 games
38%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Skyward · 7 games
43%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ezekiel · 7 games
57%
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderoften banned
USH · 5 games
60%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
Skyward · 5 games
100%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Ezekiel · 4 games
50%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Skyward · 4 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ezekiel · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
690 picks · 475 bans
47%
Techies
Techies
611 picks · 644 bans
55%
Doom
Doom
568 picks · 1109 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
519 picks · 493 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
517 picks · 1235 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
482 picks · 1052 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
458 picks · 682 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
451 picks · 920 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 45%
Hero pool strength53% goons
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total56% goons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:6
goons 53%TiltedBoys 47%
The model gave 53% on goons — the game was taken by goons in 32:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeBoris
53% · 77 games52% · 34 games
TidehunterUSH
Tidehunter
Underlord
UnderlordLil_Nick
51% · 29 games46% · 122 games
EnchantressSkyward
Enchantress
Pugna
PugnaGiant
50% · 50 games
Game 2prediction missed37:9
goons 49%TiltedBoys 51%
The model gave 51% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by goons in 21:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidBoris
51% · 59 games58% · 169 games
TimbersawUSH
Timbersaw
Venomancer
VenomancerLil_Nick
41% · 43 games53% · 184 games
TechiesSkyward
Techies
Rubick
RubickGiant
42% · 251 game
Model check result
Model favoritegoons · 56%
Series resultgoons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2