Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
goonswin 2:1series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:1
WWojtekloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
goons
Nyx Assassinoften banned
AfrOmoush · 1 game
Pangolieroften banned
Boris · 1 game
Wojtek
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
755 picks · 482 bans
Tiny
535 picks · 389 bans
Tusk
535 picks · 444 bans
Treant Protector
531 picks · 582 bans
Nature's Prophet
410 picks · 604 bans
Snapfire
389 picks · 271 bans
Death Prophet
377 picks · 640 bans
Ember Spirit
353 picks · 755 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength57% goons
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% goons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
goons 54%Wojtek 46%
The model gave 54% on goons — the game was taken by goons.
Game 2prediction missed
goons 54%Wojtek 46%
The model gave 54% on goons — the game was taken by Wojtek.
Game 3prediction correct
goons 54%Wojtek 46%
The model gave 54% on goons — the game was taken by goons.
Model check result
Model favoritegoons · 54%
Series resultgoons 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3