ESL One Malaysia 2022. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
Goonsquadloss 0:1series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 0:1
MooN teamwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Goonsquad
No games played over 6 months.
MooN team
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
579 picks · 445 bans
Puck
417 picks · 892 bans
Mars
364 picks · 580 bans
Dragon Knight
351 picks · 465 bans
Snapfire
351 picks · 178 bans
Bane
316 picks · 202 bans
Dawnbreaker
313 picks · 368 bans
Ember Spirit
292 picks · 568 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Goonsquad
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Goonsquad
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Goonsquad 64%MooN team 36%
The model gave 64% on Goonsquad — the game was taken by MooN team.
Model check result
Model favoriteGoonsquad · 64%
Series resultMooN team 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1