Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Gorillaz-Prideloss 0:2series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Balrogswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gorillaz-Pride
Disruptor
Genek · 2 games
Marsoften banned
Cara · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
TaO · 1 game
Linaoften banned
TaO · 1 game
Phantom Assassinoften banned
NaoG · 1 game
Rubick
d1smar · 1 game
Shadow Demonoften banned
d1smar · 1 game
Ursaoften banned
NaoG · 1 game
Balrogs
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
322 picks · 470 bans
Bane
280 picks · 215 bans
Snapfire
272 picks · 152 bans
Weaver
262 picks · 571 bans
Tidehunter
260 picks · 394 bans
Monkey King
259 picks · 705 bans
Ember Spirit
215 picks · 300 bans
Lion
213 picks · 99 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 63%
Hero pool strength58% Gorillaz-Pride
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Balrogs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:34
Gorillaz-Pride 38%Balrogs 62%
The model gave 62% on Balrogs — the game was taken by Balrogs in 40:20.
Game 2prediction correct28:30
Gorillaz-Pride 38%Balrogs 62%
The model gave 62% on Balrogs — the game was taken by Balrogs in 38:06.
Model check result
Model favoriteBalrogs · 62%
Series resultBalrogs 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2