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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Южная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Gorillaz-Prideloss 1:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Infinity Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gorillaz-Pride

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Cara · 5 games
40%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
d1smar · 4 games
25%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Cara · 4 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
TaO · 4 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
d1smar · 4 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Benjaz · 3 games
33%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Benjaz · 3 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
TaO · 2 games
50%

Infinity Esports

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
295 picks · 593 bans
53%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
265 picks · 343 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
234 picks · 416 bans
48%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
218 picks · 174 bans
48%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
191 picks · 359 bans
57%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
190 picks · 585 bans
60%
Rubick
Rubick
190 picks · 102 bans
51%
Wraith King
Wraith King
184 picks · 247 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 53%
Hero pool strength50% Gorillaz-Pride
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Infinity Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:9
Gorillaz-Pride 42%Infinity Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on Infinity Esports — the game was taken by Gorillaz-Pride in 27:35.
Game 2prediction correct19:39
Gorillaz-Pride 42%Infinity Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on Infinity Esports — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 31:34.
Game 3prediction correct19:26
Gorillaz-Pride 42%Infinity Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on Infinity Esports — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 36:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteInfinity Esports · 58%
Series resultInfinity Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3