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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Южная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Gorillaz-Prideloss 0:2
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Inversewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gorillaz-Pride

Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Cara · 7 games
57%
Rubick
Rubick
d1smar · 7 games
29%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
d1smar · 6 games
33%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
TaO · 6 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Benjaz · 5 games
60%
Puck
Puckoften banned
TaO · 5 games
40%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
d1smar · 4 games
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
c4t · 4 games
50%

Inverse

Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Slaw · 8 games
38%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
Slaw · 6 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
ArzenT · 4 games
75%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
DM · 3 games
33%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Migi · 3 games
67%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Slaw · 2 games
100%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
ArzenT · 2 games
50%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
Parker · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
408 picks · 999 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
353 picks · 574 bans
54%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
342 picks · 526 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
339 picks · 352 bans
49%
Lion
Lion
328 picks · 179 bans
48%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
323 picks · 700 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
302 picks · 221 bans
51%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
268 picks · 277 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 45%
Hero pool strength50% Inverse
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total51% Inverse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:48
Gorillaz-Pride 48%Inverse 52%
The model gave 52% on Inverse — the game was taken by Inverse in 33:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerArgius
45% · 24 games51% · 43 games
BloodseekerParker
Bloodseeker
Dark Seer
Dark SeerGreedy
54% · 37 games47% · 22 games
KunkkaMigi
Kunkka
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritTaO
57% · 52 games44% · 109 games
Death ProphetArzenT
Death Prophet
Viper
Viperc4t
48% · 32 games49% · 38 games
Ancient ApparitionSlaw
Ancient Apparition
Tusk
Tuskd1smar
52% · 67 games
Game 2prediction missed19:35
Gorillaz-Pride 50%Inverse 50%
The model gave 50% on Gorillaz-Pride — the game was taken by Inverse in 38:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaArgius
45% · 19 games51% · 99 games
JuggernautParker
Juggernaut
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetGreedy
59% · 33 games44% · 51 game
EnigmaArzenT
Enigma
Puck
PuckTaO
55% · 120 games43% · 87 games
Ember SpiritMigi
Ember Spirit
Viper
Viperc4t
46% · 25 games39% · 24 games
Ogre MagiSlaw
Ogre Magi
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassind1smar
60% · 64 games
Model check result
Model favoriteInverse · 51%
Series resultInverse 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2