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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Южная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Gorillaz-Pridewin 2:0
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Latam Defendersloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gorillaz-Pride

Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Cara · 7 games
57%
Rubick
Rubick
d1smar · 7 games
29%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
d1smar · 6 games
33%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Benjaz · 6 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
TaO · 6 games
33%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
TaO · 6 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Cara · 4 games
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
d1smar · 4 games
75%

Latam Defenders

Mirana
Mirana
Moonlight · 10 games
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Moonlight · 9 games
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Valquiria · 7 games
57%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Valquiria · 7 games
0%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Cucahook · 7 games
57%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Aretes · 6 games
33%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Moonlight · 6 games
33%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
Aretes · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
407 picks · 1008 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
366 picks · 583 bans
55%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
347 picks · 358 bans
48%
Lion
Lion
337 picks · 177 bans
47%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
337 picks · 526 bans
48%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
326 picks · 704 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
307 picks · 224 bans
51%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
262 picks · 283 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 32%
Hero pool strength51% Gorillaz-Pride
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Gorillaz-Pride
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:10
Gorillaz-Pride 52%Latam Defenders 48%
The model gave 52% on Gorillaz-Pride — the game was taken by Gorillaz-Pride in 23:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverArgius
47% · 13 games51% · 29 games
LifestealerCucahook
Lifestealer
Tiny
TinyTaO
61% · 33 games39% · 7 games
VenomancerValquiria
Venomancer
Slardar
SlardarGreedy
67% · 15 games43% · 105 games
Earth SpiritMoonlight
Earth Spirit
Viper
Viperc4t
45% · 21 game
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassind1smar
54% · 59 games
Game 2prediction missed38:26
Gorillaz-Pride 49%Latam Defenders 51%
The model gave 51% on Latam Defenders — the game was taken by Gorillaz-Pride in 34:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenArgius
52% · 14 games51% · 97 games
JuggernautCucahook
Juggernaut
Mars
MarsTaO
52% · 117 games50% · 43 games
LinaMoonlight
Lina
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerGreedy
49% · 35 games52% · 94 games
PangolierValquiria
Pangolier
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamand1smar
49% · 39 games
Viper
Viperc4t
44% · 29 games
Model check result
Model favoriteGorillaz-Pride · 51%
Series resultGorillaz-Pride 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2