Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Gorillaz-Prideloss 0:2series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Ravenswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gorillaz-Pride
Tusksignature
Genek · 7 games
Banesignature
Yadomi · 6 games
Hoodwinksignature
d1smar · 6 games
Invokeroften banned
TaO · 5 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Genek · 5 games
Kunkkaoften banned
NaoG · 5 games
Snapfire
d1smar · 5 games
Leshracoften banned
TaO · 4 games
Ravens
Kunkkaoften banned
DaaD- · 3 games
Mirana
d1smar · 3 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 3 games
Timbersawoften banned
Benjaz · 3 games
Disruptor
Cara · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 2 games
Enchantressoften banned
Cara · 2 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
DaaD- · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
474 picks · 657 bans
Tiny
470 picks · 442 bans
Bane
452 picks · 275 bans
Sand King
414 picks · 564 bans
Dragon Knight
410 picks · 490 bans
Storm Spirit
400 picks · 653 bans
Pangolier
368 picks · 572 bans
Grimstroke
344 picks · 295 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 58%
Hero pool strength53% Gorillaz-Pride
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total62% Ravens
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:32
Gorillaz-Pride 42%Ravens 58%
The model gave 58% on Ravens — the game was taken by Ravens in 38:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
KunkkaNaoG
Wraith KingDaaD-
PuckTaO
BeastmasterBenjaz
ClockwerkYadomi
InvokerÑengoflow KELOKE
SnapfireZxca
Enchantressd1smar
60% · 368 games
BaneCara
Game 2prediction correct20:30
Gorillaz-Pride 44%Ravens 56%
The model gave 56% on Ravens — the game was taken by Ravens in 45:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistNaoG
BloodseekerDaaD-
Dragon KnightTaO
InvokerÑengoflow KELOKE
EnigmaYadomi
BeastmasterBenjaz
HoodwinkZxca
Monkey Kingd1smar
51% · 136 games
AbaddonCara
Model check result
Model favoriteRavens · 62%
Series resultRavens 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2