IESF World Championship 2021. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Грецияwin 2:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Израильloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Греция
No games played over 6 months.
Израиль
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
371 picks · 172 bans
Hoodwink
346 picks · 124 bans
Lina
266 picks · 466 bans
Nyx Assassin
259 picks · 522 bans
Luna
250 picks · 347 bans
Mars
244 picks · 415 bans
Winter Wyvern
236 picks · 245 bans
Dragon Knight
235 picks · 328 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Греция
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Греция
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct46:13
Греция 55%Израиль 45%
The model gave 55% on Греция — the game was taken by Греция in 26:09.
Game 2prediction correct24:43
Греция 55%Израиль 45%
The model gave 55% on Греция — the game was taken by Греция in 36:11.
Model check result
Model favoriteГреция · 55%
Series resultГреция 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2