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The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
GRIN esportswin 2:1
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:1
4 amigosloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

GRIN esports

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Lodine · 9 games
89%
Mars
Marssignature
Moo · 9 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
H1j4ck · 7 games
29%
Doom
Doomoften banned
H1j4ck · 6 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Moo · 5 games
40%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Bloody Nine · 5 games
60%
Luna
Luna
Double King · 4 games
75%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Double King · 4 games
25%

4 amigos

Puck
Puckoften banned
RCY · 5 games
60%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Double King · 4 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Double King · 4 games
50%
Mirana
Mirana
albinozebra · 4 games
50%
Warlock
Warlock
albinozebra · 4 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
monkeys-forever · 3 games
33%
Clinkz
Clinkz
Double King · 3 games
33%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Double King · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
476 picks · 225 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
453 picks · 748 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
432 picks · 417 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
430 picks · 621 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
396 picks · 719 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
382 picks · 165 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
361 picks · 1004 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
344 picks · 718 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 58%
Hero pool strength54% GRIN esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total69% GRIN esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:22
GRIN esports 58%4 amigos 42%
The model gave 58% on GRIN esports — the game was taken by GRIN esports in 34:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderMoo
49% · 27 games45% · 7 games
UrsaDouble King
Ursa
50% · 4 games
ZeusRCY
Zeus
54% · 9 games
Centaur Warrunnermonkeys-forever
Centaur Warrunner
55% · 7 games
Weaveralbinozebra
Weaver
Game 2prediction missed17:37
GRIN esports 59%4 amigos 41%
The model gave 59% on GRIN esports — the game was taken by 4 amigos in 40:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Axe
AxeMoo
48% · 45 games56% · 5 games
ClinkzDouble King
Clinkz
44% · 14 games
PangolierRCY
Pangolier
71% · 10 games
Brewmastermonkeys-forever
Brewmaster
45% · 16 games
Clockwerkalbinozebra
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction correct21:21
GRIN esports 61%4 amigos 39%
The model gave 61% on GRIN esports — the game was taken by GRIN esports in 33:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slardar
SlardarMoo
52% · 99 games38% · 4 games
ClinkzDouble King
Clinkz
52% · 21 game
TimbersawRCY
Timbersaw
51% · 51 game
Centaur Warrunnermonkeys-forever
Centaur Warrunner
44% · 23 games
Weaveralbinozebra
Weaver
Model check result
Model favoriteGRIN esports · 69%
Series resultGRIN esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3