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PGL Wallachia Season 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
GRIN esportswin 2:1
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:1
asdfloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

GRIN esports

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Lodine · 9 games
89%
Mars
Marssignature
Moo · 7 games
71%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 5 games
40%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Moo · 5 games
40%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Moo · 3 games
33%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Moo · 3 games
33%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Moo · 3 games
33%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
YamSun · 3 games
0%

asdf

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
412 picks · 348 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
408 picks · 447 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
386 picks · 827 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
378 picks · 871 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
358 picks · 742 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
341 picks · 512 bans
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
328 picks · 499 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
299 picks · 560 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% GRIN esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% GRIN esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
GRIN esports 64%asdf 36%
The model gave 64% on GRIN esports — the game was taken by asdf.
Game 2prediction correct
GRIN esports 64%asdf 36%
The model gave 64% on GRIN esports — the game was taken by GRIN esports.
Game 3prediction correct
GRIN esports 64%asdf 36%
The model gave 64% on GRIN esports — the game was taken by GRIN esports.
Model check result
Model favoriteGRIN esports · 64%
Series resultGRIN esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3