PGL Wallachia Season 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
GRIN esportsloss 1:2series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Aasdfwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
GRIN esports
Disruptorsignature
Lodine · 9 games
Marssignature
Moo · 7 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 5 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Moo · 5 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Moo · 4 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Moo · 3 games
Doomoften banned
Moo · 3 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
YamSun · 3 games
asdf
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
434 picks · 364 bans
Hoodwink
420 picks · 459 bans
Weaver
390 picks · 838 bans
Tiny
384 picks · 867 bans
Phoenix
371 picks · 765 bans
Pangolier
360 picks · 532 bans
Clockwerk
338 picks · 508 bans
Ember Spirit
315 picks · 610 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% GRIN esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total59% GRIN esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
GRIN esports 59%asdf 41%
The model gave 59% on GRIN esports — the game was taken by GRIN esports.
Game 2prediction missed
GRIN esports 59%asdf 41%
The model gave 59% on GRIN esports — the game was taken by asdf.
Game 3prediction missed
GRIN esports 59%asdf 41%
The model gave 59% on GRIN esports — the game was taken by asdf.
Model check result
Model favoriteGRIN esports · 59%
Series resultasdf 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3