Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
GRIN esportsloss 0:2series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
goonswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
GRIN esports
No games played over 6 months.
goons
Pangolieroften banned
Boris · 5 games
Skywrath Mage
AfrOmoush · 3 games
Leshracoften banned
Boris · 2 games
Tusk
Boris · 2 games
Clockwerk
AfrOmoush · 1 game
Dark Willow
AfrOmoush · 1 game
Disruptor
AfrOmoush · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Boris · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
768 picks · 604 bans
Disruptor
547 picks · 453 bans
Tiny
431 picks · 380 bans
Beastmaster
420 picks · 980 bans
Nature's Prophet
397 picks · 675 bans
Undying
395 picks · 595 bans
Ember Spirit
393 picks · 920 bans
Mirana
388 picks · 209 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 64%
Hero pool strength55% goons
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% goons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:28
GRIN esports 35%goons 65%
The model gave 65% on goons — the game was taken by goons in 38:30.
Game 2prediction correct31:38
GRIN esports 35%goons 65%
The model gave 65% on goons — the game was taken by goons in 54:12.
Model check result
Model favoritegoons · 65%
Series resultgoons 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2