Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
GRIN esportswin 2:0series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:0
goonsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
GRIN esports
No games played over 6 months.
goons
Pangolieroften banned
Boris · 5 games
Skywrath Mage
AfrOmoush · 4 games
Leshracoften banned
Boris · 2 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
Boris · 2 games
Rubick
AfrOmoush · 2 games
Techies
Giant · 2 games
Tusk
Boris · 2 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Boris · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
715 picks · 600 bans
Disruptor
555 picks · 489 bans
Beastmaster
439 picks · 1062 bans
Doom
422 picks · 726 bans
Ember Spirit
402 picks · 1005 bans
Tiny
386 picks · 367 bans
Mirana
375 picks · 201 bans
Pangolier
373 picks · 814 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 71%
Hero pool strength57% goons
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total63% goons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:13
GRIN esports 37%goons 63%
The model gave 63% on goons — the game was taken by GRIN esports in 34:38.
Game 2prediction missed29:21
GRIN esports 37%goons 63%
The model gave 63% on goons — the game was taken by GRIN esports in 43:30.
Model check result
Model favoritegoons · 63%
Series resultGRIN esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2