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Elite League Season 2 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
GRIN esportswin 2:0
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Mexican Talentsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

GRIN esports

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Lodine · 9 games
89%
Mars
Marssignature
Moo · 9 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 8 games
25%
Doom
Doomoften banned
H1j4ck · 6 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Moo · 5 games
40%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Bloody Nine · 5 games
60%
Luna
Luna
Double King · 4 games
75%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Double King · 4 games
25%

Mexican Talents

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
417 picks · 609 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
373 picks · 382 bans
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
360 picks · 146 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
358 picks · 467 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
320 picks · 575 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
317 picks · 154 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
315 picks · 663 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
314 picks · 436 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 29%
Hero pool strength53% GRIN esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% GRIN esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
GRIN esports 66%Mexican Talents 34%
The model gave 66% on GRIN esports — the game was taken by GRIN esports.
Game 2prediction correct
GRIN esports 66%Mexican Talents 34%
The model gave 66% on GRIN esports — the game was taken by GRIN esports.
Model check result
Model favoriteGRIN esports · 66%
Series resultGRIN esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2