The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
GRIN esportswin 2:0series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
THThe Hutloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
GRIN esports
Disruptorsignature
Lodine · 9 games
Marssignature
Moo · 9 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
H1j4ck · 7 games
Doomoften banned
H1j4ck · 6 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Moo · 5 games
Vengeful Spirit
Bloody Nine · 5 games
Luna
Double King · 4 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
Double King · 4 games
The Hut
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
482 picks · 224 bans
Tiny
453 picks · 746 bans
Centaur Warrunner
432 picks · 628 bans
Gyrocopter
429 picks · 418 bans
Batrider
404 picks · 741 bans
Rubick
380 picks · 165 bans
Dragon Knight
353 picks · 1022 bans
Pangolier
348 picks · 726 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 57%
Hero pool strength53% GRIN esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% GRIN esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
GRIN esports 79%The Hut 21%
The model gave 79% on GRIN esports — the game was taken by GRIN esports.
Game 2prediction correct
GRIN esports 79%The Hut 21%
The model gave 79% on GRIN esports — the game was taken by GRIN esports.
Model check result
Model favoriteGRIN esports · 79%
Series resultGRIN esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2