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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
GRIN esportsloss 0:1
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:1
TiltedBoyswin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

GRIN esports

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Rein · 2 games
50%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Rein · 2 games
0%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Rein · 1 game
100%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Rein · 1 game
0%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Rein · 1 game
0%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Rein · 1 game
0%

TiltedBoys

Doom
Doomoften banned
Ezekiel · 8 games
38%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Skyward · 7 games
43%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ezekiel · 7 games
57%
Techies
Techiessignature
Skyward · 6 games
83%
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderoften banned
USH · 5 games
60%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Ezekiel · 4 games
50%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Skyward · 4 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ezekiel · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
603 picks · 638 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
471 picks · 256 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
427 picks · 847 bans
52%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
384 picks · 387 bans
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
371 picks · 750 bans
48%
Doom
Doom
352 picks · 786 bans
54%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
346 picks · 854 bans
51%
Morphling
Morphling
344 picks · 718 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 42%
Hero pool strength53% TiltedBoys
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total61% TiltedBoys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:42
GRIN esports 39%TiltedBoys 61%
The model gave 61% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by TiltedBoys in 55:15.
Model check result
Model favoriteTiltedBoys · 61%
Series resultTiltedBoys 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1