ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
GRIN esportswin 2:0series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TiltedBoysloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
GRIN esports
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
H1j4ck · 3 games
Doomoften banned
H1j4ck · 3 games
Brewmasteroften banned
DaaD- · 2 games
Chenoften banned
Bloody Nine · 2 games
Enchantressoften banned
Bloody Nine · 2 games
Lifestealeroften banned
Arms · 2 games
Luna
Arms · 2 games
Magnusoften banned
DaaD- · 2 games
TiltedBoys
Hoodwink
bgod · 2 games
Lion
bgod · 2 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
FrancisLee · 2 games
Dark Willow
monkeys-forever · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
monkeys-forever · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
monkeys-forever · 1 game
Snapfire
FrancisLee · 1 game
Techies
bgod · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
316 picks · 463 bans
Phoenix
278 picks · 414 bans
Grimstroke
263 picks · 446 bans
Lion
248 picks · 221 bans
Vengeful Spirit
243 picks · 144 bans
Pangolier
239 picks · 329 bans
Nature's Prophet
235 picks · 680 bans
Magnus
234 picks · 363 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 53%
Hero pool strength53% GRIN esports
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total52% TiltedBoys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:26
GRIN esports 52%TiltedBoys 48%
The model gave 52% on GRIN esports — the game was taken by GRIN esports in 41:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenDouble King
Hoodwinkbgod
MarsDaaD-
Vengeful SpiritBloody Nine
Game 2prediction missed42:33
GRIN esports 45%TiltedBoys 55%
The model gave 55% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by GRIN esports in 46:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaDouble King
Techiesbgod
Earth SpiritDaaD-
Vengeful SpiritBloody Nine
Model check result
Model favoriteTiltedBoys · 52%
Series resultGRIN esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2