Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
GRIN esportsloss 1:2series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Wildcard Gamingwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
GRIN esports
No games played over 6 months.
Wildcard Gaming
Snapfire
Sammyboy · 19 games
Tinyoften banned
Babitich · 10 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Lil_Nick · 9 games
Rubick
FrancisLee · 9 games
Clockwerk
Sammyboy · 8 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Sammyboy · 7 games
Disruptor
Sammyboy · 7 games
Mirana
FrancisLee · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
753 picks · 629 bans
Disruptor
608 picks · 534 bans
Doom
536 picks · 1063 bans
Beastmaster
534 picks · 1328 bans
Ember Spirit
463 picks · 1174 bans
Pangolier
459 picks · 954 bans
Techies
455 picks · 478 bans
Enchantress
439 picks · 631 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 29%
Hero pool strength52% GRIN esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Wildcard Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:36
GRIN esports 44%Wildcard Gaming 56%
The model gave 56% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by GRIN esports in 53:20.
Game 2prediction correct19:33
GRIN esports 44%Wildcard Gaming 56%
The model gave 56% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 42:59.
Game 3prediction correct21:38
GRIN esports 44%Wildcard Gaming 56%
The model gave 56% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 56:58.
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard Gaming · 56%
Series resultWildcard Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3