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The International 2026. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Grind Backwin 2:0
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Carstensz Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Grind Back

Tiny
Tiny
Cije · 3 games
0%
Bane
Bane
ace12 · 2 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
OneJey · 2 games
0%
Snapfire
Snapfireoften banned
egxrdemxn · 2 games
0%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
egxrdemxn · 2 games
0%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
seimei · 1 game
0%
Clinkz
Clinkzoften banned
Cije · 1 game
0%
Doom
Doomoften banned
seimei · 1 game
100%

Carstensz Esports

Slardar
Slardaroften banned
seimei · 8 games
38%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
ace12 · 5 games
60%
Tiny
Tiny
Dreamocel · 5 games
60%
Doom
Doomoften banned
seimei · 4 games
50%
Bane
Bane
ace12 · 3 games
100%
Lich
Lich
ace12 · 3 games
33%
Necrophos
Necrophosoften banned
Dreamocel · 3 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
ace12 · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
633 picks · 438 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
585 picks · 327 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
470 picks · 559 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
455 picks · 662 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
432 picks · 373 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
349 picks · 522 bans
51%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
341 picks · 408 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
338 picks · 1028 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 59%
Hero pool strength57% Carstensz Esports
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total61% Grind Back
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Grind Back 61%Carstensz Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on Grind Back — the game was taken by Grind Back.
Game 2prediction correct
Grind Back 61%Carstensz Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on Grind Back — the game was taken by Grind Back.
Model check result
Model favoriteGrind Back · 61%
Series resultGrind Back 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2